It might end, ironically, with a U.S. supported coup eleven years later. There is an embryonic chance that, if Vladimir Putin signs an agreement to end the war, it will not be Volodymyr Zelensky’s signature on the line beside it.
Being the leader to negotiate an end to the war was always going to be a struggle for Zelensky. He may have been the perfect president to lead Ukraine through the war with Russia. But he may not be the perfect president to lead them out.
Negotiating an end to the war with Russia could be challenging for Zelensky for three reasons. The first is that Ukrainians were nourished throughout the war on Zelensky’s promises of maximalist results. To rally both Ukrainians and Ukraine’s partners, Zelensky promised that Ukraine would reconquer lost territory and redraw the borders of Ukraine to include, not only the Donbas, but Crimea. After all the suffering and loss of life, to negotiate an end to the war, having not gained back territory, but having lost even more would be a difficult sell for Zelensky. Especially given that the concession will certainly come without the compensation of membership in NATO.
The second is that, having insisted that Putin should not and cannot be negotiated with, Zelensky would have to rescind his decree that Ukraine would not negotiate with Putin.
The third is that Zelensky would face solid, and potentially lethal, opposition from the same ultra-right nationalists who persuaded him to abandon his campaign promise to negotiate a peace with Russia when he was elected in 2019. Even then, Zelensky faced a backlash and defiance from ultranationalist leaders who even threatened his life. How much worse would the resistance be were Zelensky to lead Ukrainians back to those negotiations with the loss of the Donbas that then could have been theirs and with the hundreds of thousands of people who died or were wounded for nothing?
Being the leader who was going to negotiate the peace was always going to be hard for Zelensky. But recent events have added a new challenge and made it even harder.
The Zelensky paradox is that he was turned into a NATO asset when he was told, at the beginning of the war, to fight and not to negotiate. But now, as the war draws to a close, when he is reluctant to negotiate, that has made him, no longer an asset, but an obstacle. As early as last autumn, while NATO leaders publicly praised Zelensky, a British minister privately told the British paper The Times that Zelensky was “an obstacle to peace.”
Since that time, the private concern has become more public. The powerful U.S. senator Lindsey Graham, who is a barometer of support for Ukraine because he has been such an advocate for Ukraine and Zelensky, walked away from the recent White House meeting with the Ukrainian president suggesting that Ukraine might “need to either send us somebody new we can deal with or just accept the consequences.” Graham said on Fox News that either Zelensky “dramatically changes, or you need to get somebody new.” After the same meeting, Trump said that “if somebody doesn’t want to make a deal, I think that person won’t be around very long.”
Two news stories have suggested in the past few days that the Trump administration may be starting to push Zelensky harder to make that change or step aside.
The first was reported by NBC News who said that Zelensky would have to do much more than sign the mineral deal to press the play button on paused U.S. military aid. Zelensky would also have to demonstrate a “change[d]… attitude toward peace talks… including a willingness to make concessions such as giving up territory to Russia.” But even that might not be enough. Zelensky may not just have to be willing to start peace talks, he may have to be willing to step aside before they are concluded. Russia has long worried that Zelensky may not have the legitimacy to sign an agreement that would survive because he lacks a renewed mandate. It has been suggested by the U.S. that between a ceasefire and a signed agreement would have to be an election. According to the U.S. officials who spoke to NBC, “Trump also wants Zelensky to make some movement toward elections in Ukraine and possibly toward stepping down as his country’s leader.”
The second was reported by Politico who says that “[f]our senior members of Donald Trump’s entourage have held secret discussions with some of Kyiv’s top political opponents to Volodymyr Zelensky.” Those opposition leaders include former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko and former President Petro Poroshenko. While neither of those former leaders likely pose much of a threat to Zelensky, there are reports that Poroshenko is trying to woo former Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian armed forces Valerii Zaluzhny to join his party. And Zaluzhny is very much a threat. Recent polling suggests that Zelensky “would lose a future election by 30% to 65% to Valery Zaluzhny.” Tymoshenko has been wooing members of parliament from other parties to defect to hers.
The secret talks focus on the possibility of “quick presidential elections.” According to Politico, “Trump aides are confident that Zelensky would lose any vote.” The discussions, then, are discussions on the possibility of removing Zelensky.
Lionizing Zelensky may have been necessary to fight the war; removing him may be necessary to end it. To keep the war going, Zelensky and his NATO partners painted a picture of maximalist results and no end to the fighting until Ukraine decided it was in the best position “on the battlefield [to] be in the strongest possible position at the negotiating table. It may be hard for Zelensky to get himself out of the position he painted himself into. Some reports suggest that Trump may be considering helping push him out of that position. Ironically, a war whose stage was set by a U.S. supported coup, could end with another U.S. supported coup.
Source: AntiWar.
