U.S. President Donald Trump has seemingly shifted gear in the U.S. strategy to stop Russia on its tracks from creating new facts on the ground in Ukraine.
Russian forces have the upper hand all along the 1250-kilometer Ukrainian frontline stretching Kiev’s defences and resources, which no amount of Western military help can hope to reverse in a foreseeable future. Trump is compelling Russia to seek a military victory in Ukraine.
Trump so far put on the air of a statesman in great anguish over the humanitarian aspects of the conflict. Moscow tolerated the theatrical show to pamper Trump’s egoistic personality — that is, until Russian President Vladimir Putin shattered the myth to expose that Trump actually holds the record as the American president who sanctioned Russia the most number of times, exceeding even his predecessor Joe Biden’s tally.
Trump, in the new avatar as warmonger has unveiled a strategy of climbing the escalation ladder in the war until Putin capitulates. To that end, he has expanded the sanctions regime to include Russia’s oil industry, and is toying with the idea of supplying Ukraine with long-range Tomahawk missiles that can hit deep inside Russian territory.
The U.S. Treasury Department’s Oct. 22 press release announcing the new sanctions against Russia reads as if it is custom-made for targeting India. India and China account for some 80 percent of Russia’s oil exports, but the latter is the No. 1 buyer with 60 percent of the imports transported through pipelines, whereas India depends on carriers arranged by the Russian side (“shadow fleet”) which are also now under Western sanctions.
The press release claims that:
“The ultimate goal of sanctions is not to punish, but to bring about a positive change in behaviour.”
It is a statement of fact because this is not really about oil, but about geopolitics.
Whether Trump will actually press ahead with the oil sanctions remains unclear, since keeping Russian oil out of the world market risks high oil prices which could boomerang on the U.S. economy and be damaging politically for Trump.
Putin: ‘Unfriendly’ Act
Putin addressing the Valdai International Discussion Club in Sochi, Russia, on Oct. 2.
Putin’s initial reaction was that the oil sanctions are an “unfriendly” act which “will have certain consequences, but they will not significantly affect our economic well-being.” Putin said that Russia’s energy sector feels confident. He added,
“This is, of course, an attempt to put pressure on Russia. But no self-respecting country and no self-respecting people ever decides anything under pressure.”
Meanwhile, Western hypocrisy broke through the ceiling, as German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, one of the most enthusiastic proponents of the war, is at Trump’s doorstep pleading for a sanctions waiver.
Apparently, Germany has been quietly buying Russian oil even while portraying Russia in hostile terms, lest its GDP fell by another 3 percent!
Germany “temporarily” took control of three subsidiaries of the Russian oil company Rosneft (which the U.S. has sanctioned) to secure its energy supply. Interestingly, U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer, the charioteer of the so-called coalition of the willing raring to deploy troops in Ukraine to fight Russian forces, is traveling in the same boat as Merz seeking Trump’s waiver.
Such shady behaviour with racial overtones by the Western countries holds lessons for India.
A Moscow filling station of Rosneft, which is now under U.S. sanctions.
Clearly, the effectiveness of the new sanctions against the Russian oil giants will depend on just how zealous the U.S. is in enforcing them through secondary sanctions on entities that deal in Russian oil. If past experience is anything to go by, Washington won’t be able to sustain a full-court press — if for no other reason than that markets will force its hand once oil prices shoot up.
That is to say, thanks to lax enforcement of sanctions, Russian oil will continue to reach the world market. Buyers like India who cut down oil supplies from Russia will end up paying higher prices. By meekly complying with Trump’s diktat, they compromised their interests. The sense of humiliation is such that Delhi shies away from engaging with Trump.
As regards long-rage Tomahawk missiles (range: 3,000 kilometers) Putin was polite but frank in his reaction, saying,
“This is an attempt at escalation. But if such weapons are used to attack Russian territory, the response will be very serious, if not overwhelming. Let them think about it.”
The deputy chairman of Russia’s Security Council, Dmitry Medvedev, was blunt in conveying the Kremlin thinking:
“The U.S. is our enemy, and their talkative ‘peacemaker’ has now fully embarked on the path of war with Russia … this is now his conflict, not the senile Biden’s! … the decisions made are an act of war against Russia. And now Trump has fully sided with the insane Europe.
But there is also a clear plus in this latest swing of the Trump pendulum: we can strike all the Bandera hideouts with a wide variety of weapons without regard to unnecessary negotiations. And achieve victory precisely where it is only possible: on the ground, not at a desk. Destroying enemies, not concluding meaningless ‘deals.’ ”
Apparently, the message went home. Trump, before emplaning for Malaysia on his three-nation Asian tour, made sure that his special envoy to Russia, Steve Witkoff, met with his Russian interlocutor Kirill Dmitriev, the CEO of Russian Direct Investment Fund, to talk things over.
Meanwhile, Trump has hinted in anticipation of his forthcoming meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping on Thursday that he may not after all carry out his threatened 100 percent tariffs on Chinese goods and other trade curbs starting on Nov. 1 in retaliation for China’s vastly expanded export controls on rare earth magnets and minerals. China’s tough stance is paying off.
Similarly, the Kremlin’s blunt threat of retaliation against Tomahawk will be heeded seriously. Putin has many options — Oreshnik capable of Mach 10 speed, for instance, is a hypersonic missile that is also nuclear capable, against which the West has no defence. The weapon has entered into serial production and supplied to the armed forces.
Again, Russia’s new jet-powered glide bomb gives a significant boost in range and superior resistance to electronic countermeasures. It is capable of hitting Ukraine’s Western border. It is also moving to mass production and the West is defenceless against it.
[On Sunday Putin announced the successful development of an even more powerful weapon, the Burevestnik missile, which is nuclear-powered, allowing it stay aloft, and can be equipped with nuclear weapons. In a test last Tuesday, Putin said it flew for 15 hours and flown 8,700 miles and can evade missile defense systems.]
Source: Consortium News.
